Forecasting and Modeling Rainfall Data in Bangladesh: by Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (Sarima)

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since at least the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve. This project paper concerns an analysis on a set of a data on rainfall of Dhaka division during the period 1981-2009 from the meteorological department of Bangladesh. The Box-Jenkins Modeling approaches were used to forecast rainfall. It is hoped that the forecasts of meteorological events would be great help to the user researcher and policy maker.