Automatic Control and Prognostic: Advanced Analytical Model for the Prognostic of Industrial Systems Subject to Fatigue

The high availability of technological systems like aerospace, defense, petro-chemistry and automobile, is an important goal of earlier recent developments in system design technology knowing that the expensive failure can occur suddenly. To make the classical strategies of maintenance more efficient and to take into account the evolving product state and environment, a new analytic prognostic model is developed as a complement of existent maintenance strategies. This new model is applied to mechanical systems that are subject to fatigue failure under repetitive cyclic loading. Knowing that, the fatigue effects will initiate micro-cracks that can propagate suddenly and lead to failure. This model is based on existing damage laws in fracture mechanics, such as the crack propagation law of Paris-Erdogan beside the damage accumulation law of Palmgren-Miner. From a predefined threshold of degradation, the Remaining Useful Lifetime is estimated by this prognostic model. Damages can be assumed to be accumulated linearly and also nonlinearly, furthermore, the stochastic influence is included. In this work, two main applications are considered: automobile and petrochemical industries.