Beyond the Industrial Web: Economic Synergies and Targeting Methodologies

Economies are complex systems composed of a number of infrastructure elements. These elements, such as electrical grids, petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) distribution networks, and telecommunications systems, are interconnected in a myriad of ways. As a result of this connectivity, an attack on one infrastructure element influences the others to varying degrees. When targeting an economy, an air planner must account for this connectivity and the downstream effects that naturally occur. Historically, however, air planners have overlooked the interrelated nature of a nation's infrastructure and employed reductionist targeting techniques. Typically, they split an economy into individual target sets. Then, they select targets in each set in isolation from other targets, without anticipating the holistic effect of air bombardment. This is an inappropriate technique for targeting, as it overlooks the complex behaviors and characteristics of economies.
In this thesis, we propose a new manner of targeting economies-a holistic approach that accounts for the linkages between infrastructure elements and their resultant synergies. We first establish a theoretical foundation for targeting based on complexity science. This discipline examines the nature of complex, interconnected systems such as economies. Next, we demonstrate that economies are indeed highly interconnected systems. These linkages cannot be ignored in the targeting process. Finally, we tentatively propose a computer algorithm capable of targeting multiple, interacting infrastructure elements. The technique employs a genetic algorithm coupled to standard industrial analysis programs. When implemented, this computer technique should dramatically improve the effectiveness of economic targeting.