Outfought and Outthought: Reassessing the Mongol Invasions of Japan

In 1274 and 1281, the Mongol Empire attempted overseas invasions of Japan, following diplomatic efforts to make Japan submit. On both occasions, the Mongols were unsuccessful. Although the Japanese offered stiff and well-coordinated resistance, the invasions have taken on an almost mythical quality, not so much because of the brave samurai defense of Japan, but rather, due to the fact that both invasions ended disastrously for the Mongols, as storms destroyed their fleets. Many Japanese credited these storms, which came to be known in Japan as the "kamikaze" or "divine wind" as a sign of divine protection for the Japanese archipelago. Later, they served as a historical inspiration for the World War II (WWII) Japanese suicide pilots of the same name. However destructive those storms may have been, my research suggests that the Japanese would likely have been victorious even without the storms. The Mongols committed many diplomatic, strategic, and tactical errors during the invasions, and failed to properly apply the four instruments of national power, as well the principles of Sun Tzu. This thesis will show that the Japanese defeat of the Mongol Invasions was not primarily due to the weather, but rather, as a result of those other factors.